Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
Doubts Grow About McCain's Judgment, Age and Campaign
Obama's Lead Widens: 52%-38%
Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 39%.
Obama's strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as "well-qualified" and "down-to-earth" than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).
Obama's gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain's judgment than about Obama's: 41% see McCain as "having poor judgment," while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 16-19 among 2,599 registered voters interviewed on landline phones and cell phones, finds that McCain's age also has become more of an issue for voters. Roughly a third (34%) now says that McCain is too old to be president; in the Sept. 9-14 survey, just 23% said this. At this stage in the 1996 campaign, about as many voters (32%) said Republican candidate Bob Dole was too old to be president.
In addition, Sarah Palin appears to be a continuing - if not an increasing - drag on the GOP ticket. Currently, 49% of voters express an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 44% have a favorable view. In mid-September, favorable opinions of Palin outnumbered negative ones by 54% to 32%. Women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin: 60% now express an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 36% in mid-September. Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama's running mate.
McCain may also be getting hurt by opinions of his campaign. A large majority of voters (64%) give McCain a grade of C or lower for his efforts to convince people to vote for him; only about a third (34%) gives McCain a grade of A or B for his campaign efforts. These grades are lower than those accorded to George Bush during his two successful campaigns and are nearly as low as the grades for Dole's campaign in 1996 (29% A or B).
Obama, by contrast, receives the highest grades for a campaign dating to 1992. Nearly two-thirds of voters (65%) grade Obama's efforts at convincing people to vote for him at A or B; about a third (32%) give Obama's campaign a grade of C or lower.
A steadily growing number of voters say that McCain has been too personally critical of Obama: 56% say that now, up from 42% in mid-September. By contrast, just 26% say that Obama has been too personally critical of McCain, which is largely unchanged from mid-September (28%).
In recent weeks, McCain has lost support across the board. Most notably, he now trails Obama decidedly among political independents (51% to 33%). Yet he also has lost support among some voting blocs that previously had been strongly in his corner, including white evangelical Protestants and white men. McCain continues to lead Obama among older white men, but even here his margin over Obama has narrowed since mid-September; McCain now leads among white men age 50 and older by 54% to 38%, down from a 27-point lead in mid-September.
For all of Obama's current success, however, there are some signs of vulnerability for his candidacy that could present opportunities for McCain. First, while somewhat more voters see Obama as well-qualified than did so in mid-September, only about half (53%) say this trait describes him; 72% say McCain is well-qualified. Second, swing voters continue to represent nearly a quarter of the electorate (23%). Notably, swing voters are less likely than all voters to say that McCain would continue Bush's policies. They also express far more confidence in McCain than Obama to handle national security issues.
Voter Interest and Intensity of Support
Voter interest in the campaign remains extraordinary: Fully 81% continue to say that they have given a lot of thought to the presidential election, the highest ever measured at this stage in a campaign. The same percentages of Republican and Democratic voters say they are giving a lot of thought to the election (82% each). However, a lower percentage of Republicans say it "really matters who wins the 2008 presidential election" (71% vs. 80% of Democrats).
Republicans are also increasingly pessimistic about their party's chances next month. While there has been an across-the-board increase in the proportion of voters predicting an Obama victory since mid-September, the shift among Republicans has been particularly pronounced. About as many Republican voters now see an Obama victory as say McCain will win (40% Obama, 35% McCain). In mid-September, 70% of Republicans said McCain would win compared with just 13% who said Obama was more likely to win.
The survey also finds that 31% of voters plan to vote before Election Day, or have already voted, compared with only 19% at this stage in 2004. Early voters lean heavily to Obama; 58% say they support Obama, compared with 34% for McCain.
Barack Obama leads John McCain not only in overall support but also in the intensity of his support. A sizable plurality of 45% says they are voting for Obama and that there is no chance they will vote for McCain. McCain's "certain" support is much smaller: just 32% are certain to vote for him. Similarly, 36% say they strongly back Obama, while just 21% strongly support McCain.
Obama also holds an advantage in the proportion of voters who say their vote is cast more in support of him than against his opponent. Among Obama supporters, 77% say they are voting more for him than against McCain. Fewer of McCain's voters (64%) are positive voters, while 30% say that their vote is mostly a vote against Barack Obama.
Political and Demographic Patterns of Support
Over the past month, Obama has made gains across a number of political and demographic groups. For the first time, he holds a substantial lead among political independents (51% to 33% for McCain). McCain held a slight edge among independents in mid-September (45% to 38%).
Obama also has drawn even with McCain among white voters (45% to 45%). In the Sept. 9-14 survey, the first conducted after the party conventions, McCain led Obama among white voters by 14 points (52% to 38%). Notably, McCain's advantage among white non-college graduates also has almost disappeared over this period (from 16 points in mid-September to four points in the current survey).
Young voters - those under age 30 - continue to overwhelmingly support Obama (66% vs. 27% for McCain). Obama now also leads among older age groups as well - with the exception of those 65 and older, who are evenly split (44% Obama, 44% McCain). White voters ages 50 and older tilt to McCain, but Obama also has made gains among these voters since mid-September.
Obama also leads 52% to 37% in the political battleground states. Notably, Bush won 10 of these 15 politically contested states in 2004, by margins ranging from less than 1% (Iowa and New Mexico) to 21% (Indiana). John Kerry won five of these states - all by less than 4%.
Religion and the Vote
As in previous elections, differences in voting patterns by religion are amplified when church attendance is taken into account. Obama has made no headway among white evangelical Protestants who attend church at least once a week; just 17% of this group supports him. By contrast, 37% of white evangelicals who attend services less frequently support Obama.
Similarly, while he has made gains among Catholics overall, Obama runs even with McCain among observant white Catholics (45% to 45%). He now has a clear lead among white Catholics who attend Mass less frequently (53% to 38%).
Proportion of 'Strong' Support
The Democratic ticket enjoys a lead not only in overall support among voters but also an enthusiasm advantage. Currently, 36% of registered voters say they support Obama strongly, compared with 21% who support McCain strongly. A month ago, in the aftermath of the party conventions, the candidates were much closer in strength of support.
About seven-in-ten Democrats (71%) say they support their party's ticket strongly; among Republicans, 56% give strong support to their ticket. McCain draws particularly strong support from white evangelical Protestants (40%). For Obama, three groups stand out in terms of strength of support: African Americans (80% strong support); voters ages 18-29 (47% strong); and secular and unaffiliated voters (43% strong).
Where the Swing Vote Stands
While Obama holds a substantial lead in the poll, many voters remain persuadable. Nearly one-in-four (23%) are classified as swing voters, exactly the same percentage as Pew found two weeks before the 2000 presidential election - an election that, like this one, featured no incumbent in the race. However, unlike in 2000, committed voters today favor the Democrat by a significant margin (45% Obama, 32% McCain). Still, the proportion of swing voters is large enough to possibly change the election should they break overwhelmingly in a Republican direction. About one-in-ten voters (9%) say they are completely undecided at this point.
Obama has gained seven points in "certain" support among independents (now 37%, up from 30% a week ago), while McCain essentially held steady (25% certain now compared with 27% last week). Obama has solidified his position among liberal Democrats (now 96%, up from 90%), while McCain slipped slightly among conservative Republicans (now 84%, down from 91%).
There is little indication in the poll as to how swing voters will eventually break. They are demographically very similar to the electorate as a whole.
Swing voters who have expressed a preference between the candidates divide roughly evenly between the two men (33% for Obama, 27% for McCain). Swing voters are considerably more critical of McCain's campaign than they are of Obama's: 53% say McCain has been too personally critical of Obama, while just 33% say Obama has been too negative. At the same time, however, more swing voters say they see McCain as offering a change from President Bush's policies (45%) than say he will continue Bush's policies (32%).
Swing voters prefer McCain on foreign policy, terrorism and Iraq, as well as on selecting future Supreme Court justices. Obama leads on the economy, education, health care, and the environment. Swing voters are divided as to which candidate can best reduce the influence of lobbyists.
Read the full report including topline findings at people-press.org